Do Big Wages Guarantee Success?

In the modern football market, money talks, and very often shouts. Big clubs pay staggering wages in order to lure the best players in the world to their teams in hopes that they will bring them glory. But does shelling out millions in salaries actually translate to consistent to success on the pitch? Or is it a game of strategic spending?

Do the Big Spenders Win?

Let's start with the biggest spenders of all. In the 2023-2024 season, Paris Saint-Germain, Real Madrid, and Manchester City were three of the top five largest spenders as evidenced by the European wage charts (Capology). Unsurprisingly, all of these clubs won their domestic leagues and made deep runs into the Champions League, with Real Madrid ultimately lifting the coveted trophy.

Historically, there is a strong correlation between wage bills and performance. A 2019 report produced by Deloitte found that approximately 80% of a club's league position could be predicted by their wage spending. As a result, we can see that while there is no concrete evidence to suggest that there is a true association between these two variables, there is a clear correlation.

Outliers

Despite the clear correlation between higher spending on wages and league placement, the equation isn't that simple. Brighton & Hove Albion finished 6th in the Premier League in the 2022-23 season while boasting the second lowest wage bill in the league at just $61,000,000 for the entirety of the season ($1,173,000 per week). All the while, Chelsea FC spent $308,000,000 on wages for the season while finishing in an embarrassing 12th place. Similarly, clubs such as Atalanta and Union Berlin seem to punch far above their financial weight when it comes to league placement in recent seasons.

This raises a key question: Is how you spend more important than how much you spend?

Brighton, for example, turned undervalued players such as Moisés Caicedo and Alexis Mac Allister into world-class players, then sold them for massive profits. But how do they find these players?

"Moneyball"

The answer to the previously stated question is a "Moneyball" approach to football. Popularized by the Oakland A's baseball team and later dramatized in the 2011 film 'Moneyball' starring Brad Pitt and Jonah Hill, this strategy focuses on using in-depth data and various mathematical models to analyze player value, driven not by reputation, but by quantifiable on-field impact and performance metrics typically overlooked by traditional scouts. In Brighton's case, Tony Bloom (their owner since 2009) can be credited to much of this data-driven success. As a well known professional gambler and data analytics expert, he made his vast fortune using statistical models to beat bookmakers and brought that same mindset to football. Consequently, Brighton has experienced much success in recent years when it comes to signing undervalued players who can perform on the biggest stages.

Conclusion

In an era where football is increasingly shaped and influenced by financial strength, clubs like Brighton serve as evidence to display that success isn't only reserved for the biggest spenders. By using data and mathematical models, it is possible to not only match, but also occasionally outperform the biggest spenders. While high wages often correlate with strong results, they are far from a guarantee of success. In the end, it’s not just how much you spend, but how wisely you spend it